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The way Turkey coup forces are behaving doesn't fit any past coup attemp. And we had so many. You can't analyze this by induction. Wait.
— Zeynep Tufekci (@zeynep) July 16, 2016 (https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/754152925841285120)

The coup attempt sought to turn Erdogan into a Morsi. He's now poised to become a Putin.
— Hassan Hassan (@hxhassan) July 16, 2016 (https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/754140172531314688)

I know a few people who think the whole thing was orchestrated by Erdogan :/

So Turkey will hew further to the religious whatever it is? Sad, that.

From what I've gathered (though my understanding of the Middle East and adjacent regions is questionable at the best of times, so take this with a grain of salt), Turkish military has historically been a bastion of democracy and of a secular world, and Erdogan has been working for a while towards taking power away from them.

Even if it was a genuine coup, it's going to work out perfectly for him.

It was very poorly planned overall. How you attempt a coup without ensuring you have the full military behind you and without making cutting off communication your top priority is completely beyond me. The whole thing was lost the moment civilians took to the streets. After that, the military could either surrender or make the whole thing such a blood bath that it'd be civil war in Turkey.

Mind you, the few videos of military opening fire on civilians will still go a long way.

Most probably yes.

I wouldn't be so sure.

There are many voices etc. but most of the professors and experts on Turkey I follow seem to think that Erdogan learned about possible coup and used his people to speed it up and win it.

And there's of course the burning question about Americans - that Kerry's comment and some other's politicians responses were questionable at least. Plus isn't the most of the coup Army from the base where Americans are at?

Anyway, it's too early to judge. But it's very unfortunate the coup happened and it failed.

There was also a lot of talk about France closing their consulate in Turkey two days ago.

What's Kerry said? From what I saw of international statements, everyone defended that democracy should be respected without ever saying Erdogan's name. There's not a lot that they could've done, tbh. For better or worst, Erdogn has been democratically elected. Most countries won't outright support people fighting against a democratic leader. Plus, Turkey is is NATO, and I'm pretty sure this counts as an attack on a member state. To support the rebels would be an international mess.

There were lots of talk last night about whether or not this meant the rebels had gotten international backing or not or the promise of it, and one of the arguments in favor of Erdogan planning this.

Edited 2016-07-16 20:42 (UTC)

Yes, France seems to have great connections which they don't know how to use well sometimes.

I was basically following it since it started with "something is happening in Turkey, they are soldiers on two bridges???" moment. Around the time Erdogan was on the television via face-time Kerry said (idk if it was shortly before or after) that he hopes for stability, peace, continuity in Turkey and then some American senators started going on how now the ~~real democracy~~ will be in Turkey (there was a whole fight about it on Twitter). People went on how it shows that the US in backing "New Egypt".

Kerry later said that all in Turkey should support democratically-elected government. I was almost falling asleep at this point but people were tearing him apart for waiting until Erdogan was winning. They were also praising the EU for saving face because they reacted way before the US.

And people were also mentioning an article from May where Newsweek republished the analysis of a former Pentagon official who concluded that, should elements in the Turkish military stage a coup, they would “get away with it.” (I was too lazy to Google).

And pro-American Egyptian outlets (I do not understand the language so I follow translators into English and Polish) started spreading rumours that Erdogan was flying to Germany to ask for a refugee there, got denied ans went to the UK instead.

There's also a question who the Gulen guy is because most of people try to show him as "modern man" but apparently he' also has sinister reputation and is pro-radical Islam. And the US only reacted when his journalists were jailed in Turkey not any others.

There were lots of talk last night about whether or not this meant the rebels had gotten international backing or not or the promise of it, and one of the arguments in favor of Erdogan planning this.

The coup was very different from all the others because no party was backing this and everyone (even Kurds) asked people not to join it (which didn't happen in '97).

And then suddenly Erdogan fires over 2k judges which is questionable at least.

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